At the end of 2012, many news media outlets published or aired their year-in-review stories. This particular journalistic convention also includes the lists of notables who have gone to the hereafter life in the calendar year just ended. And some bold scribes make predictions about what the year to come holds in store.
This latter activity is especially enjoyable, because it allows one to quote the great American Yogi, Lawrence Peter Berra. In the view of the Yankees’ catcher, soothsaying had a considerable downside, because “The future ain’t what it used to be.”
Still, there is that urge to dive in and divine what might be in 2013, even though the effort could be taxing. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” Yogi is said to have stated (although the expression of similar sentiments has been attributed to others, including Mark Twain, Will Rogers and Samuel Goldwyn).
In 2013, after the Congress pulled back from hurtling over the fiscal cliff, lawmakers will commence wrangling over raising the federal debt ceiling, and sequestration (across-the-board budget cuts pursuant to the 2011 Budget Control Act), which will become an issue in just two months.
On the state level, the DFL Party has retaken control of the Legislature. With Gov. Mark Dayton in office, this new order gives rise to speculation about the shape of legislative agenda. After the marriage amendment was defeated in the 2012 popular vote, there will be an attempt to repeal the legal ban on same-sex marriage. Sen. John Marty, DFL-Roseville, told City Pages this week: “I’m dropping a marriage equality bill again. I think we’ve waited far too long, and saying we should wait longer is not okay.” However, Minnesota DFLers are a notoriously fractious bunch (like Jews), so it remains to be seen how some of the more conservative caucus members will come down on marriage equality. Some prediction, huh?
Turning to the Middle East, there is quite a mess brewing. The so-called Arab Spring has been a boon to Islamist factions in several countries. Other monarchies and dictatorships in the Mideast and North Africa are trying to keep a lid on things, with varying results. AJW readers are probably wondering when either the United States or Israel will launch an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The issue began heating up in 2012 (as it did in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011), in the run-up to the U.S. elections, then, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled his Acme Bomb Co. cartoon before the United Nations General Assembly, the rush to war sort of fizzled. There have been rumors that Israel will attack Iran in the spring or summer — again, we’ve been hearing these stories for the past five years. I recently watched an episode of the excellent Showtime series Homeland (based on the an Israeli TV show). The CIA agent, or former agent, played by Claire Danes was dispatched to Beirut to meet an informant who supposedly knew about a planned Hezbollah attack on U.S. facilities. News reports about an Israeli attack on four Iranian nuclear sites formed the backdrop to the fictional portrayal; the Middle East was erupting.
In the real Middle East, there are grave worries that things will only get worse in Syria, where, according to a U.N. statement this week, 60,000 people already have been killed by the regime of Bashar al-Assad over the past 22 months. The Arab league and U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi recently warned that 100,000 more people could be slaughtered in the coming year. Navi Pillay, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, blamed the international community for inaction: “Collectively we have fiddled at the edges while Syria burns,” she said, according to a CNN report. “While many details remain unclear, there can be no justification for the massive scale of the killing highlighted by this analysis.” If the situation in Syria deteriorates further, and concerns escalate about the status of chemical and biological weapons stockpiles, 2013 could see another intervention by Western nations in the Middle East. However, Russia and China are still backing the al-Assad regime, and the situation is fraught with danger. Former U.S. Middle East envoy Aaron David Miller, writing in the Washington Post this week, noted that Syria, in contrast to Libya at the end of Kaddafi’s reign, “combines the worst aspects of three volatile elements: civil war, sectarian violence and manipulation by external powers.” The view from Syria looks bleak in 2013.
From Washington to Minnesota to the Middle East, and on to the global climate change crisis: in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, there were calls again to take serious action to reduce greenhouse gases. In 2013, the nations of the world will act against the influence of the gas and coal industries and do something significant in the face of our most serious environmental threat. On this count, we should have a positive outlook and take whatever actions we can to avert calamity.
And the Vikings will win the Super Bowl, the Timberwolves will win the NBA championship (if Ricky Rubio gets back to his old form), and the Twins will win the World Series (if they get some pitching). That’s just the local booster talking. No NHL season. The Minnesota Orchestra and the St. Paul Chamber Orchestra will get in tune. Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will still be married at the end of 2013, and will grow old together, perhaps.
To review the predictions: logjams in Congress, strife in the Middle East, aberrant weather patterns and continued American optimism.
“It’s déjà vu all over again,” as Yogi said.
— Mordecai Specktor / editor@ajwnews.com
(American Jewish World, 1.4.13)
